Nguy cơ thực sự trong thương mại này không phải là cà phê sẽ được giao dịch trên 8098 tại thời điểm hết hạn tùy chọn. Nguy cơ thực sự trong thương mại này là giá cà phê sẽ kinh nghiệm một động thái liên tục trở lên ngay lập tức sau khi thương mại được nhập vào. | More free books @ Introduction 15 depict the expected profit or loss as of a different date based on the price of Coffee at that time. A range of Coffee prices is listed along the bottom of the graph. By looking at the risk curves on several dates leading up to expiration we get a more realistic picture of the risk involved. The real risk in this trade is not that Coffee will be trading above 8098 at the time of option expiration. The real risk in this trade is that Coffee prices will experience a sustained move upward immediately after the trade is entered. If Coffee rallies sooner rather than later traders may be holding a trade with a large open loss. Although the probability of this happening may be low when you consider that Coffee once opened 3000 points higher you can begin to appreciate the need to acknowledge that such a thing could happen and the potential impact that such a move could have on this trade. Therefore you need to know how such a move would affect your position to ensure that you could weather the worst-case scenario. The key is not in figuring out what to do once the worstcase scenario unfolds. The key is advance planning to avoid getting into such a situation in the first place. This type of planning would be impossible if you looked only at the risk curve at expiration which is what the graph in Figure shows. Unfortunately the graph showing how the trade would work out if it were held until expiration is the one that usually shows up when option-trading strategies are discussed. As you can see in Figure the single risk curve drawn at expiration does not tell the full story. It is impossible to overemphasize the importance of recognizing the risks that exist for any given trade and planning in advance to minimize risk should the worst-case scenario unfold rather than waiting for the worst to happen and then trying to figure out how to save your skin There is a 91 probability of profit if the position is held to .
