Cũng vậy đối với trái phiếu. Nếu bạn biết những gì gây ra biến động thu nhập cố định (tức là, những gì gây ra giá để trả lại xung quanh trong thị trường thứ cấp), bạn có một cơ hội tốt hơn về bảo vệ chống lại động thái tiêu cực của họ. | Fundamental Factors 201 comprehensive trade measure. It includes goods services and financial flows. This last bit is crucial information that s not found anywhere else. The bond market s reaction to the trade balance release can be a bit schizophrenic. A smaller deficit can strengthen the dollar which is good news for the bond market. But a smaller deficit also adds to GDP which is bad news for the bond market. How the bond market will interpret and respond to a shrinking deficit is often more a reflection of the current state of mind than anything else. Bond analysts will often look to see whether the deficit was narrowed by imports slowing viewed as bullish for bonds or exports burgeoning more negative than positive for bonds . Personal Income and Consumption In our current gotta have it all now cultural milieu a spike in personal income usually leads to a rise in personal consumption. This is bearish for bonds since it fulfills the classic definition of inflation too many dollars chasing too few goods. By contrast a drop in the savings rate is bullish for bonds because it is interpreted to mean that the economy has slowed causing people to dip into their savings. Disposable income Personal income - Tax payments Savings rate Disposable income - Personal consumption If however the current paradigm shifted and the majority of people started saving instead of spending a rise in personal income could be bullish for both bonds and stocks as demand for them increased. While this scenario becomes more likely as the bulk of our population ages it still seems to be far from our current experience. Consumer Sentiment The theory goes that if consumers are optimistic they ll spend more boosting the economy bond investors 202 IS IT THE MOON . . . THAT GETS BONDS TO MOVE hiss . If consumers are pessimistic about the future they tend to curtail spending putting brakes on the economy. It s interesting to note that consumers perceptions mold their actions so in effect they can .
