Một khi giá sự kiện được biết, giá của tiền chi trả bất kỳ có thể được tìm thấy mà không cần xác định một chiến lược đầu tư mà tạo ra rằng lợi ích thu. Trung tính xác suất rủi ro là sự kiện Đầu tư vào các hành động giảm thiểu sự không chắc chắn và tăng cường tính linh hoạt và | Drivers and Influencers of Water Demand Housing stock Housing Density Criteria for Selecting Best Water Demand 1 1 Goals Objectives u What information is needed by planners and decision-makers u What type of models are needed to provide this information Data Availability What is available What is the quality What models will the data support Budget What are financial constraints u u u 1 Goals Data Budget Water Demand Forecast Approaches Trend Extrapolation Pros 1 Only historical demand data required 1 Very low cost Cons 1 Assumes past trend carries into the future 1 No ability to explain water demands 1 Cannot account for changes in demographics weather or other factors Per Capita Approach 1 Divide historical total demand by population to get per capita use 1 Multiply per capita use by projected population to get future demand Pros 1 Simple to understand 1 Allows for main driver population to be accounted for Cons I I Water Demand ---Population Demands do not always follow population growth Does not account for factors such as price income types of housing employment trends or other influencers of demand 1 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 Unit Use Approach 1 Get sector demands . singlefamily multifamily non-residential 1 Divide each sector demands by appropriate drivers . housing or employment to get unit use Example Single-family demand 150 MGD Single-family homes 500 000 Unit use 150 000 000 gal day V 500 000 homes 300 gallons home day Pros 1 Allows for all major sectors drivers of water demand to be accounted for Cons 1 Water use factors such as weather income price and others are not incorporated
