Thông thường, khi chúng ta nghĩ về những người thắng và kẻ thua từ một cơn bão, chúng tôi tách chúng thành các nhóm người bị thương, người đã phải trả tiền, và hàng hóa trở nên khan hiếm. Với ý nghĩ đó, chúng ta hãy chạy qua người thua cuộc. Đầu tiên, chúng tôi có tất cả mọi người trong đường đi của cơn bão. | 214 POLITICS forecasted in the summer. CPI started the year spiking in January and then had another spike in August with September and October still very high. This meant that fears of stagflation were abounding and that s not good for bonds. Also the spike in crude oil was making inflation spike as well and jacked up fears into the run-for-the-medications stage. When oil collapsed inflation fears subsided and bond prices rallied. However due to this bipolar nature of the bond market bond yields never dropped in dramatic fashion like crude oil. In summary there were plenty of opportunities to take advantage of and trade. As a trader at the time I was able to sell . dollars for consistent profits as the buildup to attack was progressing and the . economy was experiencing a mild form of stagflation. Most in the market at the time felt that oil was moving too fast to an unsustainable level given the weak . economy. Granted this is in hindsight but the best trade was to fade this move up especially after Bush s speech to Congress. Something was going to be done we just didn t know when. There was even a nice pattern between the end of October and the beginning of November. Oil had already seen a high and then a big drop to below 30. There were two attempts to get above 36 again that failed. You could ve sold and left a stop-loss order above 36 that would ve minted some very nice profits. This is a great example for event trading. You don t have to catch the initial movement but you have to pay attention to the overall pattern that is developing. The event puts in motion the market and creates the opportunities. Sometimes the best trades or the easiest ways to make money are not from the first move but from the subsequent moves and retracements to the initial moves. Aren t We Missing Something Oh yeah the actual war. The United States ended up massing some 540 000 . troops in Saudi Arabia following General Colin Powell s doctrine of superior strength of .
