177 Ngay như Ralph nhận ra điều này, ông có thể giải thích gyrations hoang dã trong đu cổ phần của tôi, họ đến vì chúng tôi đã sử dụng các công thức sai! Điều này có vẻ khá cơ bản như chúng ta đang bước vào một thế kỷ mới, nhưng trở lại sau đó, | 177 As soon as Ralph realized this he could explain the wild gyrations in my equity swings they came about because we were using the wrong formula This may seem pretty basic as we are about to enter a new century but back then we were in the midst of a revolution in money management and this stuff was not easy to see. We were tracking and trading where to the best of my knowledge no one had gone before. What we saw were some phenomenal trading results so we did not want to wander too far from whatever it was we were doing. Ralph came up with an idea he calls Optimal F it is similar to Kelly but unlike Kelly can adapt to trading markets and gives you a fixed percentage of your account balance to bankroll all your trades. Let s look at what can happen with this general approach. On the End of a Limb and Sawing It Off The problem with an optimal F approach or fixed fraction of your account is that once you get on a roll you roll too fast. Let me prove my point if your average win loss trade is 200 and you have 10 trades per month and you will increase on contract at every 10 000 of profits it will take you 50 trades or 5 months to add that first additional contract. Then it will take only months to go from 2 to 3 about 7 weeks to boost it up to 4 contracts 5 weeks to jump to 5 one month to reach 6 25 days to 7 21 days to 8 contracts. Eighteen days later you are at 9 and at days you trade a 10 lot. Then disaster strikes as it surely must. You have now scooted out on the end of a limb and are sitting there with lots of contracts on. Although the limb snaps when you have a large losing trade 3 times the average of 200 or 600 per contract times the 10 lot so you just dropped 6 000 you have not given back 10 000 yet. So you trade a 10 lot on the next trade and lose another 6 000. Now in two trades you are down 12 000 from your equity high at 100 000. The next trade is also a loser three in a row for the average of 200 times the 9 lot you are now trading and you .
