the alchemy of finance reading the mind of the market by george soros phần 2

bản thảo ở ba giai đoạn phát triển khác nhau. Cảm ơn đặc biệt là do Antonio Foglia, người tạo ra các đồ họa minh họa thí nghiệm thời gian thực. Larry Chiarello cung cấp các con số. Tôi cũng muốn cảm ơn đội ngũ đã góp phần vào việc thực hiện Quỹ Quantum trong quá trình thí nghiệm | The Theory of Reflexivity 35 be attributed to the false analogy with Heisenberg s uncertainty principle. I am no expert in quantum physics but as I understand it the principle holds that the mass and velocity of quantum particles cannot be measured at the same time because the act of measurement interíerẹs with the object that is being measured. In this case the element of uncertainty is introduced by the outside observer. Whether tlịe behavior of quantum particles is inherently random is a separate question. The parallel with the social sciences is misleading because in the latter case the indeterminacy uncertainty is caused by the participants. Only if quantum particles behaved as thinking participants would the analogy hold. I shall try to reverse the discussion to its proper order the uncertainty in the subject matter first the role of the scientist second. The idea that there is a fundamental difference in the subject matter of the natural and social sciences has not been generally recognized. On the contrary Karl Popper whom I otherwise admire enunciated what he called the doctrine of the unity of science 4 that is the same methods and criteria apply in both the natural and social sciences. Although it has not been universally accepted it has not been conclusively refuted either. I shall try to do so here. In order to appreciate the problem posed by thinking participants let us take a closer look at the way scientific method operates. For this purpose I am invoking Karl Popper s scheme of scientific method described in technical terms as the deductive-nomological or D-N model. Like every model it presents a simplified and idealized version of a more complex reality but exactly because it is simple and elegant it suits my purpose very well. The model is built on three kinds of statements specific initial conditions specific final conditions and generalizations of universal validity. Combining a set of generalizations with known initial conditions yields .

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