Trong đó, tỷ giá hối đoái đến nay quan trọng hơn. Nó không có nhiều sự suy giảm của đồng tiền này làm cho tổng lợi nhuận tiêu cực. By , khi một đồng tiền tăng giá cũng cung cấp một lợi thế lãi suất, tổng lợi nhuận vượt quá bất cứ điều gì mà alholder của tài sản tài chính có thể mong đợi trong quá trình bình thường của sự kiện. | Reflexivity in the Currency Market 73 Of the two exchange rates are by far the more important. It does not take much of a decline in the currency to render the total return negative. By the same token when an appreciating currency also offers an interest rate advantage the total return exceeds anything that a J holder of financial assets could expect in the normal course of events. That is not to say t iat interest rate differentials are unimportant but much of their importance lies in their effect on exchange rates and that depends on the participants perceptions. There are times when relative interest rates seem to be a major influence at other times they are totally disregarded. For instance from 1982 to 1986 capital was attracted to the currency with the highest interest rate namely the dollar but in the late 1970s Switzerland could not arrest the influx of capital even by imposing negative interest rates. Moreover perceptions about the importance of interest rates are often wrong. For instance until November 1984 the strength of the dollar was widely attributed to high interest rates in the United Spates. When interest rates declined without the dollar weakening this view was discredited and the dollar went through the roof. Expectations about exchange rates play the same role in currency markets as expectations about stock prices do in the stock market they constitute the paramount consideration for those who are motivated by the total rate of return. In the stock market that covers practically all investors in currency markets all speculative transactions. In the stock market we used a model that focused on stock prices and disregarded dividend income. No great distortion was involved because in the kind of boom bust sequences we were considering stock price movements far outweigh dividend income. Similar conditions prevail in currency markets expectations about future exchange rates constitute the main motivation in speculative capital transactions. The .
