vào các thời điểm khác, họ là hoàn toàn bỏ qua. Ví dụ, 1982-1986 vốn đã được artacted tiền tệ với tỷ lệ 2., I est quan tâm, cụ thể là, đồng đô la, nhưng trong cuối những năm 1970, Thụy Sĩ không thể bắt các dòng vốn thậm chí bằng cách áp đặt các mức lãi suất tiêu cực. Hơn nữa, nhận thức về tầm quan trọng của lãi suất | Phase 1 August 1985-December 1985 149 Aug. 16 1985 Closing 8 16185 Closing 8 16 85 DM s p 500 . T-Bonds 762y32 Eurodollar Gold Crude Oil 1 Japanese Bonds QUANTUM FUND EQUITY 647 000 000 Net Asset Value Per Share 4 379 Change from 12 31 84 Portfolio Structure in millions of dollars Investment Positions 1 Long Short Net Currency Exposure 6 Long Short Stocks US Stocks 666 62 DM-related Japanese Yen 467 244 Foreign Stocks 183 j Pound Sterling US Dollar 9 73 Bonds 3 US Gvt. Short Term 4 Long Term Commodities Oil Gold 67 46 121 Other CuiTencies 50 the Imperial Circle are in the process of being corrected banks are returning to sounder practices the budget deficit is being cut and interest rates are being reduced. My optimism is tempered by the insight that the time when past excesses are corrected is the period of greatest risk. The excesses were meeting a certain need otherwise they would not have developed in the first place. Can the system function without them Moreover the process of correction can develop its own momentum setting off a self-reinforcing trend in the opposite direction. Everything hinges on the outlook of the economy. If the economy strengthened in the second half of 1985 all would be well. 150 The Real-Time Experiment Even if there were renewed weakness in 1986 the financial structure would already be in a stronger position to withstand the consequences. In any case that eventuality is too far removed to have any relevance to current investment decisions. I consider myself ill-qualified to match wits with professionals who have much more information at their disposal in predicting the actual course of the economy. That is why I have chosen to stay on the sidelines in cyclical stocks. The single most important variable is consumer spending. Some experts claim that consumers are overextended others argue that if you make money available the American consumer can be counted on to spend it who am T .
