Tuyển tập báo cáo các nghiên cứu khoa học quốc tế ngành y học dành cho các bạn tham khảo đề tài: The utility of the Historical Clinical Risk -20 Scale as a predictor of outcomes in decisions to transfer patients from high to lower levels of security-A UK perspective | Dolan and Blattner BMC Psychiatry 2010 10 76 http 1471-244X 10 76 BMC Psychiatry RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access The utility of the Historical Clinical Risk -20 Scale as a predictor of outcomes in decisions to transfer patients from high to lower levels of security-A UK perspective Mairead Dolan1 Regine Blattner2 Abstract Background Structured Professional Judgment SPJ approaches to violence risk assessment are increasingly being adopted into clinical practice in international forensic settings. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Risk -20 HCR-20 violence risk assessment scale for outcome following transfers from high to medium security in a United Kingdom setting. Methods The sample was predominately male and mentally ill and the majority of cases were detained under the criminal section of the Mental Health Act 1986 . The HCR-20 was rated based on detailed case file information on 72 cases transferred from high to medium security. Outcomes were examined independent of risk score and cases were classed as success or failure based on established criteria. Results The mean length of follow up was 6 years. The total HCR-20 score was a robust predictor of failure at lower levels of security and return to high security. The Clinical and Risk management items contributed most to predictive accuracy. Conclusions Although the HCR-20 was designed as a violence risk prediction tool our findings suggest it has potential utility in decisions to transfer patients from high to lower levels of security. Background Over the last 3 decades there have been significant developments in the field of violence risk assessment and management. It is increasingly recognized that individuals with mental disorder have an increased 4 to 6 times higher risk of committing a violent crime 1 2 . Since the work of Monahan 3 unstructured clinical approaches to risk assessment in psychiatric patients have been questioned due to .
