Research suggests that non-expert individuals are typically overconfident; they overestimate the quality of their own abilities or knowledge (Svenson 1981, Weinstein 1980) and state extreme probabilities more often than they should. Work in economic theory, particularly with business-related forecasting, has provided further support for this behavioral phenomenon (Camerer and Lovallo, 1999). The reasons for overconfidence when answering trivia questions are a subject of intense debate among decision theorists (Ayton and McClelland 1997). Three prominent explanations have emerged. One argument is that it is an illusion created by asymmetrically misleading items in investigation methods (Juslin 1994, Gigerenzer et al. .
