At the same time, it can hardly be the case that the market profile is the only path for interest rates which might bring inflation broadly to its target over the next two to three years. Intuitively one might expect that an earlier rise in interest rates could also deliver the target in early 2014. Equally the first increase could be delayed. We cannot know what would actually be needed but we could, in principle, use economic models to explore alternative paths. There is, however, a substantial obstacle to doing this in any convincing way
