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World Event Trading How to Analyze and Profit from Today’s Headlines phần 4

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lo sợ rằng bệnh dịch sẽ lây lan qua thư. Đây cũng là kỳ lạ như thế nào các điều kiện trước khi dịch bệnh bùng phát bắt chước những gì đã xảy ra trong thế kỷ thứ mười bốn. Theo các quan chức chính phủ Ấn Độ vào thời điểm đó, chỉ có 13% của 900 triệu người của Ấn Độ đã truy cập để vệ sinh thích hợp và chỉ có 60% rác thải tạo ra mỗi | 64 INFECTIOUS DISEASES FIGURE 4.3 Singapore Dollar Source Used with permission from Bloomberg L.P. FIGURE 4.4 South Korean Won Source Used with permission from Bloomberg L.P. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS 65 FIGURE 4.5 Japanese Yen Source Used with permission from Bloomberg L.P. FIGURE 4.6 Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd Source Used with permission from Bloomberg L.P. 66 INFECTIOUS DISEASES 92.51 .14 Equity GPO GPO - Bar Chart Page 1 19 Range -I Upper Mov. Avgs I I I Currency. I Period I Lower Mov. Avg Australia 61 2 9777 8600 Brazil 5311 3048 4500 Europe 44 30 3330 7500 Carmans 43 63 330410 Hong Kong 853 2977 6000 Japan 81 3 3301 8300 Singapore 65 6313 1000 u s 1 313 318 3000 Copyright 2006 Bloomberg IP G649-304-1 04-ữ e-0é 13 33 34 FIGURE 4.7 Four Seasons Hotels Inc. Source Used with permission from Bloomberg L.P. and American Airlines all experienced a drop of between 3 and 5 percent. Air Canada was already in a weak position and the stock price further deteriorated dropping from C 3 to C 1 as the company flirted with bankruptcy Figure 4.8 . In contrast drug companies that were associated with providing a cure or a test did well and Gilead Sciences GILD went up as fast as the airline stocks went down Figure 4.9 . One more general point is that disease outbreaks have sharp shortterm impacts that either exacerbate the trends in place or provide temporary pops in the other direction. As you saw in the preceding chapter the Federal Reserve was in the process of cutting interest rates to extremely low levels when SARS broke out. This is generally U.S. dollar negative and equity positive. All of the stocks quickly recovered as did the currencies that were negatively impacted. Disease outbreaks offer traders and investors great opportunities to make money if they can maintain composure and act. You can either go with the direction the disease is heading by selling the region impacted or you can fade the move by buying into the sell-off in expectation of a .