Visual inspection reveals that around the time of the EC recommendation of the early warning to Portugal and Germany (rumours on 17 January, recommendation on 30 January), there was an increase in Portuguese 10-year government bond yields. The cumulative increase in the Portuguese 10-year government bond yields reached 23 bp to decline thereafter to 10 bp in the beginning of February. This movement of the long-term yields implied a decline of the swap spread became negative in some days of the period between 17 January and 30 January (see Figure 5). A similar development can be tracked after the announcement of 30 January. The cumulative change in.
