Trong sinh vật học, môi trường có thể định nghĩa như là tổ hợp của các yếu tố khí hậu, sinh thái học, xã hội và thổ nhưỡng tác động lên cơ thể sống và xác định các hình thức sinh tồn của chúng. | 196 Pielke between the total score in the UK Football Association s FA s annual Cup Championship game and the subsequent hurricane season s damage without even controlling for SSTs ENSO or the Premier League tables. Years in which the FA Cup championship game has a total of three or more goals have an average of landfalling hurricanes and billion in damage whereas championships with a total of one or two goals have had an average of only storms and billion in damage. I am sure that no one would believe that there is a causal relationship between FA Cup championship game scores and US hurricane landfalls yet the existence of a spurious relationship should provide a reason for caution when interpreting far more plausible relationships. Two simple dynamics associated with interpreting predictions help to explain why fundamental uncertainties in hurricane landfalls will inevitably persist. The first of these dynamics is what might be called the guaranteed winner scam . It works like this select 65 536 people and tell them that you have developed a methodology that allows for 100 per cent accurate prediction of the winner of next weekend s big football game. You split the group of 65 536 into equal halves and send one half a guaranteed prediction of victory for one team and the other half a guaranteed win on the other team. You have ensured that your prediction will be viewed as correct by 32 768 people. Each week you can proceed in this fashion. By the time eight weeks have gone by there will be 256 people anxiously waiting for your next week s selection because you have demonstrated remarkable predictive capabilities having provided them with eight perfect picks. Presumably they will now be ready to pay a handsome price for the predictions you offer in week nine. Now instead of predictions of football match winners think of real-time predictions of hurricane landfall and activity. The diversity of available predictions exceeds the range of
