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Regional Scale Ecological Risk Assessment - Chapter 4

Trong khi lĩnh vực đánh giá rủi ro sinh thái (EcoRA) đang di chuyển về hướng nhiều hơn hệ thống, cũng như thực tế hơn, đánh giá, nhưng ít hướng dẫn trên làm thế nào để tích hợp các mối quan hệ phức tạp có thể tồn tại trong môi trường bị ảnh hưởng bởi áp lực tự nhiên và con người. Các nhà nghiên cứu đang bắt đầu để kêu gọi và để phát triển các thủ tục mô hình chất lượng sẽ giúp tích hợp các thành phần (Harris et al 1994;. Dambacher, Li, và Rossignol 2003). chất lượng mô hình có khả năng. | Chapter 4 Application of the Relative Risk Model to the Fjord of Port Valdez Alaska Janice K. Wiegers and Wayne G. Landis contents Introduction.54 Project Background.54 Limitations of Traditional Risk Assessments at the Regional Scale.56 Relative Risk Model Design.57 Methods.58 Problem Formulation.58 Background Investigation and Stakeholder Involvement.58 Assessment and Measurement Endpoints.59 Results of the Problem Formulation Conceptual Model.60 Analysis.60 Relative Risk Model.60 Uncertainty Analysis.66 Sensitivity Analysis.71 Confirmatory Analysis.71 Results.72 Relative Risk in Port Valdez.72 Uncertainty.76 Sensitivity.78 Confirmation of Risk Rankings in Port Valdez.80 Comparison to Benchmark Values.80 Estimating the Risk of Toxicity Due to PAH.82 Discussion.83 Implications of the Relative Risk Model and Confirmatory Analyses.84 Importance of Stakeholder Participation and Scientific Collaboration.85 53 2005 by CRC Press LLC 54 REGIONAL SCALE ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT Relative Risk Model as a Tool for Risk Assessors and Resource Managers.86 Limitations of Relative Risk Models.87 Conclusions.88 References.88 INTRODUCTION While the field of ecological risk assessment EcoRA is moving toward more systems-based as well as more realistic assessments there is yet little guidance on how to integrate the complex relationships that can exist within environments affected by natural and anthropogenic stresses. Researchers are beginning to call for and to develop qualitative modeling procedures that will help to integrate these components Harris et al. 1994 Dambacher Li and Rossignol 2003 . Qualitative models are capable of larger-scale perspectives through which the more specific and quantitative models can be understood. Qualitative models can be used as a framework in which to sort out complex sets of relationships while the more detailed and quantitative studies usually assess only a couple of variables at a time. In 1997 we developed a relative risk model RRM to .