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Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting by Chris Brooks and Sotiris Tsolacos_1

Tham khảo tài liệu 'real estate modelling and forecasting by chris brooks and sotiris tsolacos_1', tài chính - ngân hàng, đầu tư bất động sản phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | Introduction 11 involved with acquisitions will rely more on their knowledge of the locality and building to make a buy or sell decision. This has also given rise to so-called judgemental forecasts. Real estate markets have gone through severe cycles not predicted by bottom-up analysis however and thus this approach to forecasting has been questioned. For many the winning formula is now not just having good judgement about the future direction of the market but also making a careful quantitative analysis explaining cyclical movements and the impact of broader trends. Therefore consistent with evidence from other fields a view that has increasingly gained popularity is that the optimal approach arises from a combination of judgemental and quantitative forecasting. Moreover there is a more generic econometric and forecasting interest. Do quantitative techniques underperform judgemental approaches or is the combination of quantitative and judgemental forecasts the most successful formula in the real estate market The book addresses this issue directly and the tools presented will give the reader a framework to assess such quandaries. Real estate forecasting can also be used for model selection. There are often competing theories available and it may be the case that there is more than one theory-consistent model that passes all the diagnostics tests set by the researcher. The past relative forecasting success of these models will guide model selection for future forecast production and other uses. Finally forecasting is the natural progression in real estate as more data become available for a larger number of markets. In scholarly activity the issue of data availability is highlighted constantly. One would expect that with more data and markets interest in real estate forecasting will continue to grow. The key objectives of forecasting in real estate are presented in box 1.1. Box 1.1 Objectives of forecasting work 1 Point forecasts. The forecaster is seeking the .