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Chris Brooks Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting_7

Tham khảo tài liệu 'chris brooks real estate modelling and forecasting_7', tài chính - ngân hàng, đầu tư bất động sản phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | Multi-equation structural models 331 Table 10.4 Actual and simulated values for the Tokyo office market Rent growth Vacancy Absorption Completions Actual Predicted Actual Predicted Actual Predicted Actual Predicted 1Q04 0.03 -2.19 6.0 6.7 356 174 159 118 2Q04 0.69 -1.43 6.0 6.5 117 147 124 118 3Q04 0.96 -0.97 5.7 6.4 202 129 148 116 4Q04 0.78 -0.69 5.7 6.4 42 118 44 114 1Q05 0.23 -0.50 5.1 6.3 186 111 62 111 2Q05 -0.07 -0.40 4.6 6.3 98 106 -9 110 3Q05 0.12 -0.31 4.0 6.3 154 103 28 107 4Q05 0.87 -0.26 3.6 6.3 221 102 140 105 1Q06 1.71 -0.21 2.9 6.3 240 101 93 103 2Q06 2.35 -0.15 2.7 6.3 69 100 26 102 3Q06 3.02 -0.12 2.4 6.2 144 100 82 101 4Q06 3.62 -0.06 2.3 6.2 -17 100 -40 101 1Q07 12.36 -0.01 1.8 6.2 213 100 107 100 2Q07 0.56 0.01 1.9 6.2 142 101 174 100 3Q07 0.12 0.02 2.1 6.1 113 101 162 100 4Q07 -0.07 0.01 2.3 6.1 88 101 123 100 Average values over forecast horizon 1.70 -0.45 3.7 6.3 148 112 89 107 ME 2.16 -2.61 36 -18 MAE 2.17 2.61 70 53 RMSE 3.57 2.97 86 65 performance of the completions equation the average value over the four-year period is 107 compared with the average actual figure of eighty-nine. The system under-predicts absorption and again the quarterly volatility of the series is not reproduced. The higher predicted completions in relation to the actual values in conjunction with the under-prediction in absorption in relation to the actual values again results in a vacancy rate higher than the actual figure. Actual vacancies follow a downward path all the way to 2Q2007 when they turn and rise slightly. The actual vacancy rate falls from 7 per cent in 4Q2003 to 1.8 per cent in 1Q2007. The prediction of the model is for vacancy falling to 6.1 per cent. Similarly the forecasts for rent growth are off the mark despite a well-specified rent model. The 332 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting measured quarterly rises on average in 2004 and 2005 are not allowed for and the system completely misses the acceleration in rent growth in 2006. Part of this has to