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The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices

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FOR many years the following question has been a source of continuing controversy in both academic and business circles: To what extent can the past history of a common stock's price be used to make meaningful predictions concerning the future price of the stock? Answers to this question have been provided on the one hand by the various chartist theories and on the other hand by the theory of random walks | The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices Eugene F. Fama The Journal of Business Vol. 38 No. 1. Jan. 1965 pp. 34-105. Stable URL htlp links.jstor.org sici sici 0021-9398 28196501 2938 3A1 3C34 3ATBOSP 3E2.0.CO 3B2-6 The Journal of Business is currently published by The University of Chicago Press. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR s Terms and Conditions of Use available at http www.jstor.org about terms.html. JSTOR s Terms and Conditions of Use provides in part that unless you have obtained prior permission you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http www.jstor.org journals ucpress.html. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. The JSTOR Archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long-term preservation and access to leading academic journals and scholarly literature from around the world. The Archive is supported by libraries scholarly societies publishers and foundations. It is an initiative of JSTOR a not-for-profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community take advantage of advances in technology. For more information regarding JSTOR please contact support@jstor.org. http www.jstor.org Mon Mar 3 11 30 17 2008 THE BEHAVIOR OF STOCK-MARKET PRICES EUGENE F. FAMa I. Introduction For many years the following question has been a source of continuing controversy in both academic and business circles To what extent can the past history of a common stock s price be used to make meaningful predictions concerning the future price of the stock Answers to this question have been provided on the one hand by the various chartist theories and on the other hand by the theory .