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THE ROLE OF INTEREST RATES IN FEDERAL RESERVE POLICYMAKING

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The case for a rise can be put quite simply. An early increase in Bank Rate makes it more likely that the inflation target can be met in two to three years time because it allows for greater subsequent flexibility. If inflationary pressures subsequently prove more severe than the central part of our forecast suggests, then it will be a help to have started to raise interest rates earlier. But if they prove less strong then subsequent increases can be slower than would otherwise be the case. Indeed, if the economy is extremely weak, interest rates can be.

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