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Lecture Fundamentals of operations management (4e): Chapter 9 - Davis, Aquilano, Chase

Chapter 9 "Forecasting", after studying this chapter you will be able to: Introduce the basic concepts of forecasting and its importance within an organization, identify several of the more common forecasting methods and how they can improve the performance of both manufacturing and service operations, provide a framework for understanding how forecasts are developed, | DAVIS AQUILANO CHASE PowerPoint Presentation by Charlie Cook F O U R T H E D I T I O N Forecasting © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2003 chapter 9 Chapter Objectives Introduce the basic concepts of forecasting and its importance within an organization. Identify several of the more common forecasting methods and how they can improve the performance of both manufacturing and service operations. Provide a framework for understanding how forecasts are developed Demonstrate that errors exist in all forecasts and show how to measure and assess these errors. Discuss some of the software programs that are available for developing forecasting models. © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2003 9– Managerial Issues Recognizing the increased importance of forecasting in both manufacturing and services. How to go about implementing forecasting at all levels in the organization. Understanding how managers can use the various forecasting methods to decide when to add manufacturing capacity and where to locate retail service outlets for maximum sales. © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2003 9– Types of Forecasting Qualitative Techniques Nonquantitative forecasting techniques based on expert opinions and intuition. Typically used when there are no data available. Time Series Analysis Analyzing data by time periods to determine if trends or patterns occur. Causal Relationship Forecasting Relating demand to an underlying factor other than time. © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2003 9– Comparing the Costs and Benefits of Forecasting Exhibit 9.1 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2003 9– Forecasting Techniques and Common Models Exhibit 9.2a © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2003 9– Forecasting Techniques and Common Models Exhibit 9.2b © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2003 9– Comparison of Forecasting Techniques Exhibit 9.3 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2003 9– Components of Demand Average Demand for the Period Trends Seasonal Influence Cyclical . | DAVIS AQUILANO CHASE PowerPoint Presentation by Charlie Cook F O U R T H E D I T I O N Forecasting © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2003 chapter 9 Chapter Objectives Introduce the basic concepts of forecasting and its importance within an organization. Identify several of the more common forecasting methods and how they can improve the performance of both manufacturing and service operations. Provide a framework for understanding how forecasts are developed Demonstrate that errors exist in all forecasts and show how to measure and assess these errors. Discuss some of the software programs that are available for developing forecasting models. © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2003 9– Managerial Issues Recognizing the increased importance of forecasting in both manufacturing and services. How to go about implementing forecasting at all levels in the organization. Understanding how managers can use the various forecasting methods to decide when to add manufacturing capacity and .