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Impacts of business confidence and consumer confidence on VN - Index

This paper examines the impacts of business confidence and consumer confidence on VN-Index. The results confirm positive impacts of business confidence and consumer confidence on the index, but they are not remarkably high. | 76 | Thân Thị Thu Thủy & Phạm Thị Bích Thảo | 76 - 88 Impacts of Business Confidence and Consumer Confidence on VN-Index THÂN THỊ THU THỦY University of Economics HCMC - thuynh@ueh.edu.vn PHẠM THỊ BÍCH THẢO Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam HCMC Branch thaoptb@bidv.com.vn ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Article history: Received: April 02, 2014 Received in revised form Sep. 04, 2014 Accepted: Sep. 30, 2014 Keywords: business confidence, consumer confidence, stock price index, VN-Index. Fluctuations in stock price index are always the focus of investors’ and listed companies’ interest, so the exploration of factors affecting this index is crucial. This paper examines the impacts of business confidence and consumer confidence on VN-Index. The results confirm positive impacts of business confidence and consumer confidence on the index, but they are not remarkably high. Thence, the study proposes solutions to the improvement in business confidence and consumer confidence to help the Vietnam’s stock market grow in a stable and sustainable manner. JED No.222 October 2014| 77 1. INTRODUCTION A variety of scientific researches in the world emphasizes the impacts of business and consumer confidence on stock price index. Bremmer (2008) studies the relationship between consumer confidence and a set of nine different stock price indices comprising the Dow Jones Industrials; the S&P500; the Nasdaq 100; the S&P100; the Russell 1000, 2000 and 3000; and the Wilshire 5000. The Bremmer’s study offer four empirical results: “First, consumer confidence and the nine different stock indices are non-stationary time series with unit roots. Second, cointegration tests confirm that there is no long-run relationship between different stock indices and the University of Michigan’s measure of consumer confidence. Third, regarding the shortrun relationship between stock indices and consumer confidence, .