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Association between securities and real estate markets: The case of Ho Chi Minh city

Using a comprehensive survey of expert opinions, we find that several macro factors including GDP, interest rate, inflation, fiscal policy, monetary policy, securities market regulations, international capital flows, and money market have effects on both the securities and real estate markets, which, in turn, do have mutual interactions. | 62 Phan Thi Bich Nguyet & Pham Duong Phuong Thao / Journal of Economic Development 23(4) 62-79 Association between Securities and Real Estate Markets: The Case of Ho Chi Minh City PHAN THI BICH NGUYET University of Economics HCMC – nguyettcdn@ueh.edu.vn PHAM DUONG PHUONG THAO University of Economics HCMC – pdpthao@ueh.edu.vn ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Article history: This study inspects the relationship between the securities market and real estate market in Vietnam, particularly the case of Ho Chi Minh City from Q1/2009 through Q3/2014. Using a comprehensive survey of expert opinions, we find that several macro factors including GDP, interest rate, inflation, fiscal policy, monetary policy, securities market regulations, international capital flows, and money market have effects on both the securities and real estate markets, which, in turn, do have mutual interactions. Furthermore, it is suggested by the survey results that among the determinants, policy on foreign investment control has the most powerful impact on capital movements between the two markets. The results of TECM analysis of property price index and VN-Index reveal a bidirectional causality between the two markets, which are positively related in the long run. Received: Nov. 24, 2015 Received in revised form: May 10, 2016 Accepted: Sep. 23, 2016 Keywords: Securities market, real estate market. Phan Thi Bich Nguyet & Pham Duong Phuong Thao / Journal of Economic Development 23(4) 62-79 63 1. Introduction Recent situations in Vietnam reveal the fluctuations experienced by both the securities and real estate markets, changing from the dynamism and strong attraction of investment capital inflows before 2008 to those gloomy days and recession after the global economic crisis. Abnormal movements of the two markets not only draw research attention but also pose the question of whether a relation can be established between the securities market and the real estate one. Indeed, much research has been