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Forecasting energy intensity with fourier residual modified grey model: An empirical study in Taiwan

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In the case of Taiwan, the modified models resulted in very low values of mean of absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.33% and 0.58%, respectively to the energy consumption and real GDP. Hence, the modified model is strongly suggested to forecast the energy intensity in Taiwan from 2012-2015. | FORECASTING ENERGY INTENSITY WITH FOURIER RESIDUAL MODIFIED GREY MODEL: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY IN TAIWAN Thanh-Lam Nguyen, Ying-Fang Huang National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, Kaohsiung 80778, Taiwan ABSTRACT: Energy intensity is defined as the energy consumption for producing every unit of real GDP in a certain time frame. Studies in forecasting the energy intensity have not well positioned due to the difficulty in collecting relevant data on the determinants affecting the energy consumption and GDP. Therefore, in this study, it is proposed to use the Grey forecasting model GM(1,1) to predict the energy consumption and real GDP before the intensity is forecasted. To enhance the accuracy level of the forecasting models, their residuals are then modified with Fourier series. In the case of Taiwan, the modified models resulted in very low values of mean of absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.33% and 0.58%, respectively to the energy consumption and real GDP. Hence, the modified model is strongly suggested to forecast the energy intensity in Taiwan from 2012-2015. Keywords: GM(1,1), FGM(1,1), Grey forecasting, Fourier series, Energy intensity. I. INTRODUCTION Energy is the core of most economic, environmental and developmental issues around the globe. It has been well proved that there is a close relationship between the energy consumption and economic development. As per the definition offered by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, energy intensity is defined as the energy consumption for producing every unit of real GDP in a certain time frame which means that the lower the energy intensity of an economy is, the better the economy performs. Energy intensity indicates the total energy used to support a wide range of production and consumption (economic and social) activities [1]. Therefore, it is usually considered as one of the measures of sustainable development. A country with highly economical .