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Forecasting paddy prices in Ambikapur market of Chhattisgarh State using SARIMA Approach

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The present study was carried out to forecast prices of paddy through univariate Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. The secondary data (Time Series data) pertaining to monthly prices (Rs/q) of paddy were collected the website of Chhattisgarh State Marketing Board (Mandi) for the period from April 2009 to February 2020 have been used for the study. The SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 were found as the most suitable models to forecasts of paddy prices. With these models there were made forecast for 13 months, which are from March 2020 to March 2021. The best models were chosen based on highest R2 - value and least Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. | Forecasting paddy prices in Ambikapur market of Chhattisgarh State using SARIMA Approach