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The Bass Model Technical: Marketing Engineering Technical Note

Kỹ thuật trong Marketing dùng để dự báo vòng đời sản phẩm. "The Bass model is a very useful tool for forecasting the adoption (first purchase) of an innovation (more generally, a new product) for which no closely competing alternatives exist in the marketplace. A key feature of the model is that it embeds a "contagion process" to characterize the spread of word-of -mouth between those who have adopted the innovation and those who have not yet adopted the innovation." | The Bass Model: Marketing Engineering Technical Note1 Table of Contents Introduction Description of the Bass model Generalized Bass model Estimating the Bass model parameters Using Bass Model Estimates for Forecasting Extensions of the Basic Bass model Summary References Introduction The Bass model is a very useful tool for forecasting the adoption (first purchase) of an innovation (more generally, a new product) for which no closely competing alternatives exist in the marketplace. A key feature of the model is that it embeds a "contagion process" to characterize the spread of word-of -mouth between those who have adopted the innovation and those who have not yet adopted the innovation. The model can forecast the long-term sales pattern of new technologies and new durable products under two types of conditions: (1) the firm has recently introduced the product or technology and has observed its sales for a few time periods; or (2) the firm has not yet introduced the product or technology, but its market behavior is likely to be similar to some existing products or technologies whose adoption pattern is known. The model attempts to predict how many customers will eventually adopt the new product and when they will adopt. The question of when is important, because answers to this question guide the firm in its deployment of resources in marketing the innovation. Description of the Bass model Suppose that the (cumulative) probability that someone in the target segment will adopt the innovation by time t is given by a nondecreasing 1 This technical note is a supplement to some the materials in Chapters 1, 2, and 7 of Principles of Marketing Engineering, by Gary L. Lilien, Arvind Rangaswamy, and Arnaud De Bruyn (2007). © (All rights reserved) Gary L. Lilien, Arvind Rangaswamy, and Arnaud De Bruyn. Not to be re-produced without permission. 1 continuous function F(t), where F(t) approaches 1 (certain adoption) as t gets large. Such a function is depicted in Exhibit 1(a), .