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Short Selling Strategies, Risks, and Rewards part 6

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là tiêu cực và tương quan với sự phân tán của dư luận. Cô ước tính một biện pháp sai lệch trong thu nhập đối với trường hợp có số lượng các nhà phân tích sau đây một sự sụt giảm cổ phiếu bằng cách giả sử họ sẽ có thu nhập ước tính một phần trăm thấp hơn so với dự toán thấp nhất. | 198 THEORY AND EVIDENCE ON SHORT SELLING EXHIBIT 7.4 Palm Options on 3 17 00 LIBOR 3-month 6.21 6-month 6.41 Stock Prices Palm 55.25 3Com 68 Options Prices Call Put . Synthetic Short Percent Deviation Synthetic Long Percent Deviation Bid Ask Bid Ask May 55 5.75 7.25 10.625 12.625 47.55 -14 51.05 -8 August 55 9.25 10.75 17.25 19.25 43.57 -21 47.07 -15 November 55 10 11.5 21.625 23.625 39.12 -29 42.62 -23 Note May options expire 5 20 00. August options expire 08 19 00 November options expire 11 18 00. A synthetic short position buys a put at the ask price sells a call at the bid price and borrows the present value of the strike price. A synthetic long position sells a put at the bid price buys a call at the ask price and lends the present value of the strike price. We discount May cash flows by 3-month LIBOR and August and November cash flows by 6-month LIBOR. Source of options price data CBOE. Source of LIBOR Datastream. and at-the-money . The solid line the actual stub goes from strongly negative at the beginning to positive 10 a share. The dotted line the synthetic stub is positive in all but one week. By the distribution date the difference between the two lines is close to zero roughly consistent with put-call parity. The pattern shows that options prices adjust to virtually eliminate profitable trading opportunities. Put differently the implied cost of shorting falls as the desirability of shorting falls. Thus we have three ways of inferring Palm s true value the embedded value reflected in 3Com s share price the value reflected in options prices and the actual price. The market for November options and the shareholders in 3Com seemed to agree Palm was worth far less than its market price. The direction of the deviation from put call parity is consistent with the difficulty of shorting Palm. To profit from the difference between the synthetic security and the underlying security one would need to short Palm and buy the synthetic long. If shorting is costly then