Đang chuẩn bị liên kết để tải về tài liệu:
Short selling strategies risks and rewards phần 6

Không đóng trình duyệt đến khi xuất hiện nút TẢI XUỐNG Tải xuống

Các trường hợp hai ý kiến đầy đủ cho việc phát triển những kết luận này, tổ chức nhiều mô hình thực tế. Tuy nhiên, thông thường có nhiều ý kiến khác nhau về giá trị của an ninh. Tình trạng này sẽ được giới thiệu là một ý kiến khác nhau. Nó được thảo luận trong Chương 6,59 | 202 THEORY AND EVIDENCE ON SHORT SELLING tinuing survey conducted by the Yale School of Management shows that about 70 of those surveyed thought the market was overvalued in early 2000. Remarkably Exhibit 7.6 shows that simultaneously 70 of those surveyed also thought market would continue to go up. If everyone agrees the market is overvalued but expects it to continue to go up amid high volume this is the essence of the greater fool theory and in particular the Harrison and Kreps version. Another fact explained by the overpricing hypothesis is the very high level of stock issuance that occurred from 1998 to 2000. One interpretation is that issuers and underwriters knew that stocks were overpriced and so rushed to issue. Evidence arising out of subsequent legal action against underwriters such as emails sent by investment bank employees is certainly consistent with the hypothesis that the underwriters thought the market was putting too high a value on new issues. One way to think about issuance is as a mechanism for overcoming short sale constraints. Both short selling and issuance have the effect of increasing the amount of stock that the optimists can buy both are examples of supply increasing in response to high prices. Suppose you think Lamont.com is overpriced in 1999. One way to take advantage of this fact is to short the stock. In doing this you are selling overpriced EXHIBIT 7.6 The Percent of the Population Expecting an increase in the Dow in the Coming Year. Short Sale Constraints and Overpricing 203 shares to optimists. This action is very risky however as Lamont.com might well double in price. A safer alternative action is for you to start a new company that competes with Lamont.com call it Lamont2.com and issue stock. This IPO is another way to sell overpriced shares to optimists. SUMMARY The overpricing hypothesis says stocks can be overpriced when something constrains pessimists from shorting. In addition to short sale constraints there also needs to