Đang chuẩn bị liên kết để tải về tài liệu:
ree to choose a personal statement phần 9

nó xảy ra ở nhiều nước tại thời gian chỉ giống như chi tiêu chính phủ cao và thâm hụt lớn của chính phủ là những hiện tượng trên toàn thế giới. Tuy nhiên, lạm phát không phải là một hiện tượng quốc tế theo nghĩa là mỗi quốc gia riêng biệt không có khả năng | The Cure for Inflation 263 and in Germany under 5 percent. Inflation is a worldwide phenomenon in the sense that it occurs in many countries at the same time just as high goverment spending and large government deficits are worldwide phenomena. But inflation is not an international phenomenon in the sense that each country separately lacks the ability to control its own inflation just as high government spending and large government deficits are not produced by forces outside each country s control. Low productivity is another favorite explanation for inflation. Yet consider Brazil. It has experienced one ofthe most rapid rates of growth in output in the world and also one of the highest rates of inflation. True enough what matters for inflation is the quantity of money per unit of output but as we have noted as a practical matter changes in output are dwarfed by changesin the quantity of money. Nothing is more important for the long-run economic welfare of a country than improving productivity. If productivity grows at 3.5 percent per year output doubles in twenty years at 5 percent per year in fourteenyears quitea difference. But productivity is a bit player for inflation money is center stage. What about Arab sheikhs and OPEC They have imposed heavy costs on us. The sharp rise in the price of oil lowered the quantity of goods and services that was available for us to use because we had to export more abroad to pay foroil. The reduction in output raised the price level. But that was a once-for-all effect. It did not produce any longer-lasting effect on the rate of inflation from that higher price level. In the five years after the 1973 oil shock inflation in both Germany and Japan declined in Germany from about 7 percent a year to less than 5 percent in Japan from over 30 percent to less than 5 percent. In the United States inflation peaked a year after theoil shock atabout 12 percent declined to 5 percent in 1976 and then rose to over 13 percent in 1979. Can .