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Báo cáo nghiên cứu khoa học " Simulating tropical cyclone activities using regional climate model "

Mô hình khí hậu khu vực (RegCM3) từ ICTP (Trung tâm Quốc tế Vật lý lý thuyết) với khoảng khoảng cách 36 km lưới ngang được sử dụng để mô phỏng sự thay đổi liên hàng năm của các cơn bão nhiệt đới hoạt động ở Tây Bắc Thái Bình Dương. Miền mô phỏng từ 0N 33N 100E đến 160E. Thí nghiệm số đã được thực hiện trong 1995-1997, năm đáng chú ý khi các sự kiện ENSO chuyển từ giai đoạn lạnh giai đoạn ấm áp. Các lĩnh vực đầu ra của RegCM3 được nội suy 4 cấp độ. | Simulating tropical cyclone activities using regional climate model Tuan-Long TRINH Hoang-Hai BUI Van-Tan PHAN Quang-Trung NGUYEN Department of Meteorology Hanoi University of Science VNU ABSTRACT The Regional Climate Model RegCM3 from ICTP International Center for Theoretical Physics with roughly 36-km horizontal grid spacing is used to simulate the inter-annual variability of tropical cyclones activities in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The simulation domain is from 0N to 33N and from 100E to 160E. Numerical experiment was carried out in 1995-1997 remarkable years when the ENSO event shifted from cold phase to warm phase. Output fields of RegCM3 were interpolated to 4 levels 850hPa 700hPa 500hPa 300hPa and the criterion for a possible candidate of TC was selected with a standard of vortices 0.5x10-5 . If the center of vortex and sea level pressure SLP center are found with bi-rational interpolation other criteria will be checked to confirm TC is detected including the anomaly of temperature at each level the outer core wind strength 5m s on 850 mb and the decrement of pressure 1hPa . Results show that the number position and motion of detected TCs agree well with the observation. The number of TCs is in general seasonally well represented with the highest one in August. However detected TCs occur also in the end of winter which is usually not the case of the observed TCs. ------------------------------------------------ Keywords tropical cyclone hurricane regional climate model Northwest Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone detection scheme. 1. Introduction Today there are many evidences showing that climate change is related to abnormal changes of weather and climate in many regions on the earth. The cause of large scale circulation changes is mainly from global warming and there is an increasing trend for extreme events including tropical cyclones TCs . The detection scheme which uses outputs of regional climate models has been tested in this study. Outputs of RegCM3