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Lecture Operations management for competitive advantage (11/e) - Chapter 13: Demand management

In this chapter, the following content will be discussed: Demand management, qualitative forecasting methods, simple & weighted moving average forecasts, exponential smoothing, simple linear regression, web-based forecasting. | Chapter 13 Demand Management Demand Management Qualitative Forecasting Methods Simple & Weighted Moving Average Forecasts Exponential Smoothing Simple Linear Regression Web-Based Forecasting OBJECTIVES 2 Demand Management A B(4) C(2) D(2) E(1) D(3) F(2) Dependent Demand: Raw Materials, Component parts, Sub-assemblies, etc. Independent Demand: Finished Goods 3 Independent Demand: What a firm can do to manage it? Can take an active role to influence demand Can take a passive role and simply respond to demand 4 Types of Forecasts Qualitative (Judgmental) Quantitative Time Series Analysis Causal Relationships Simulation 5 Components of Demand Average demand for a period of time Trend Seasonal element Cyclical elements Random variation Autocorrelation 7 Finding Components of Demand 1 2 3 4 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Year Sales Seasonal variation Linear Trend 6 Qualitative Methods Grass Roots Market Research Panel Consensus | Chapter 13 Demand Management Demand Management Qualitative Forecasting Methods Simple & Weighted Moving Average Forecasts Exponential Smoothing Simple Linear Regression Web-Based Forecasting OBJECTIVES 2 Demand Management A B(4) C(2) D(2) E(1) D(3) F(2) Dependent Demand: Raw Materials, Component parts, Sub-assemblies, etc. Independent Demand: Finished Goods 3 Independent Demand: What a firm can do to manage it? Can take an active role to influence demand Can take a passive role and simply respond to demand 4 Types of Forecasts Qualitative (Judgmental) Quantitative Time Series Analysis Causal Relationships Simulation 5 Components of Demand Average demand for a period of time Trend Seasonal element Cyclical elements Random variation Autocorrelation 7 Finding Components of Demand 1 2 3 4 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Year Sales Seasonal variation Linear Trend 6 Qualitative Methods Grass Roots Market Research Panel Consensus Executive Judgment Historical analogy Delphi Method Qualitative Methods Delphi Method l. Choose the experts to participate representing a variety of knowledgeable people in different areas 2. Through a questionnaire (or E-mail), obtain forecasts (and any premises or qualifications for the forecasts) from all participants 3. Summarize the results and redistribute them to the participants along with appropriate new questions 4. Summarize again, refining forecasts and conditions, and again develop new questions 5. Repeat Step 4 as necessary and distribute the final results to all participants 10 Time Series Analysis Time series forecasting models try to predict the future based on past data You can pick models based on: 1. Time horizon to forecast 2. Data availability 3. Accuracy required 4. Size of forecasting budget 5. Availability of qualified personnel 14 Simple Moving Average Formula The simple moving average model assumes an average is a good estimator of future behavior The .