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The use of aridity index to assess implications of climatic change for land cover in Turkey

This study was carried out to determine the impacts of climate change on aridity and land cover in Turkey. Data for future (2070s) climate change, according to present conditions (1990s), were estimated from the prediction results of a regional climate model (RCM). | Research Article Turk J Agric For 33 (2009) 305-314 © TÜBİTAK doi:10.3906/tar-0810-21 The use of aridity index to assess implications of climatic change for land cover in Turkey Derya ÖNDER1,*, Mehmet AYDIN2, Süha BERBEROĞLU3, Sermet ÖNDER1, Tomohisa YANO4 1 Department of Agricultural Structures and Irrigation, Faculty of Agriculture, Mustafa Kemal University, 31040 Hatay - TURKEY 2Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Mustafa Kemal University, 31040 Hatay - TURKEY 3Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Agriculture, Çukurova University, 01330 Adana - TURKEY 4Faculty of Engineering, Kyushu Kyouritsu University, 1-8 Jiyugaoka Yahata-nishi-ku, 807-8585 Kitakyushu - JAPAN Received: 10.10.2008 Abstract: This study was carried out to determine the impacts of climate change on aridity and land cover in Turkey. Data for future (2070s) climate change, according to present conditions (1990s), were estimated from the prediction results of a regional climate model (RCM). The RCM, which was developed in Japan, is based on the MRI model. The potential impacts of climate change were estimated according to the A2 scenario of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Aridity index, the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration, was computed by using measured data for the present condition and estimated data by the RCM for the future years. Changes in aridity were evaluated by comparing the current and future index values. Aridity variables were interpolated to determine the spatial distribution by means of geostatistical methods. Land cover was modelled and mapped by using the present and future aridity index data. In the southern regions of Turkey, especially along Mediterranean coasts, projected precipitation for 2070s will be 29.6% less than the present. On the contrary, an increase (by 22.0%) in precipitation was projected along the coast of Black Sea. The model predicted that the temperature might increase by 2.8-5.5 °C in the .