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Báo cáo nghiên cứu khoa học: "Assessment of climate change impacts on salinity intrusion in Hong-Thai Binh and Dong Nai river basins"

Biến đổi khí hậu (CC) là một vấn đề toàn cầu không chỉ ảnh hưởng đến các nước phát triển nhưng cũng là những người phát triển như Việt Nam. Với bờ biển khoảng 3.260 km, Việt Nam dự kiến sẽ bị ảnh hưởng đáng kể bởi sự thay đổi khí hậu bao gồm xâm nhập mặn. Thông qua việc đánh giá tác động của biến đổi khí hậu về tài nguyên nước ở Hồng-Thái Bình và lưu vực sông Đồng Nai mà nằm ở hai vùng kinh tế trọng điểm, trong bài báo, một bức tranh chung về tác. | VNU Journal of Science Earth Sciences 27 2011 54-61 Assessment of climate change impacts on salinity intrusion in Hong-Thai Binh and Dong Nai river basins Tran Hong Thai Tran Thi Van Vietnam Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Environment 23 62 Nguyen Chi Thanh Hanoi Vietnam Received 3 January 2011 received in revised form 18 January 2011 Abstract. Climate change CC is a global problem that not only affects the developed countries but also the developing ones as Vietnam. With a coastal line of approximately 3 260 km Vietnam is expected to be affected considerably by climate change including salinity intrusion. Through the assessment of impacts of climate change on water resource in Hong-Thai Binh and Dong Nai river basins which located in two key economic zones in the paper a general picture of impacts of climate change on salinity intrusion in Vietnam is presented where MIKE 11 was used for Hong -Thai Binh basin and HydroGIS for Dong Nai basin. The study gives out some results of salinity intrusion in the two basins according to three climate change scenarios in three typical years 2030 2050 and 2100. Finally both the short and long terms adaptation measures to salinity intrusion caused by climate change in Vietnam are summarized. Keywords Climate change salinity intrusion Hong-Thai Binh river Dong Nai river. 1. Introduction During the past 50 years in Vietnam the average temperature has increased by about 0.7 0C and sea level has risen by about 20cm. According to the forecast of Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment by 2100 sea levels will rise up to 1 m temperature increases by about 3 C. Vietnam has a long coastline of 3 260 km and 75 of the population lives in coastal areas so it may be affected seriously by climate change. According to calculations if sea level rises a meter about 40 thousands km2 of flat plain in Vietnam will be flooded every year of which 90 of the provinces of Cuu Long River Delta be almost completely flooded. Hong - Thai Binh .