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Project risk management processes techniques in sights phần 9

Một số người, những người có thể hoặc không có thể hiểu các quan điểm trước, có thể cho rằng tất nhiên tốt nhất quản lý dự án của hành động là để giả định rằng phê duyệt cho các thay đổi thiết kế sẽ mất 3 tuần, kể từ này là các thời gian tiêu chuẩn của công ty trong việc phê chuẩn, ngụ ý rằng nguy cơ vượt quá sự ước lượng này thuộc về trung tâm của công ty, không phải là quản lý dự án. . | 310 Effective and efficient risk management have only one observation which may or may not reflect issues associated with the current potential design change and which may or may not matter. Some people who may or may not understand the preceding perspectives may take the view that the project manager s best course of action is to assume that approval for the design change will take 3 weeks since this is the corporate standard time for approvals implying that the risk of exceeding this estimate belongs to the corporate centre not the project manager. This approach known as a conditional estimate cop-out is widespread practice in a wide variety of related forms. Such conditions are usually subsequently forgotten. They involve particularly dangerous practice when the assumed conditions for the estimate are ambiguous and allocation of responsibility for the conditions is unclear. Such practice is likely to flourish in organizations whose culture includes strong management pressures to avoid revealing bad news appearing pessimistic or lacking in confidence. In these situations the conditional estimate cop-out is a useful defensive mechanism but one that reinforces the culture and can result in a conspiracy of optimism . Estimates based on this kind of corporate standard may appear rational and objective but they are actually irrational because they do not reflect estimators rationally held beliefs. To the authors all these issues mean that a rational subjective approach to estimating is essential. One priority issue is stamping out conditional estimate cop-outs and picking up related effects. Another priority issue is to determine whether the uncertainty matters. If it matters it needs to receive further attention proportionate to how much it matters and the extent to which it can be managed given available estimation resources. This implies an approach to estimating that is iterative starting out with a perspective that is transparent and simple and goes into more .