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Climate change as environmental and economic hazard Part 4

Nói chung, môi trường của một khách thể bao gồm các vật chất, điều kiện hoàn cảnh, các đối tượng khác hay các điều kiện nào đó mà chúng bao quanh khách thể này hay các hoạt động của khách thể diễn ra trong chúng. | 188 Pielke are dependent upon methodological choices or if the signal is small when compared to uncertainties or variability. At times when one reads studies seeking to identify patterns or causality in geophysical time series one may be tempted to invoke the old saw about how tortured data will inevitably confess. But at the same time there may indeed be scientifically meaningful signals in the data that complex methods are able to extract. Regardless it seems straightforward that the more difficult it is to identify a signal in messy data the less practically useful is that knowledge. In practical terms on timescales of decision making a signal that cannot be seen is indistinguishable from a signal that does not exist. Second there are a number of studies that have sought to use complex methods to identify patterns and relationships in the US hurricane landfall record. Those studies will be referenced here but not replicated. The data on the economic losses from US landfalling hurricanes comes from Pielke et al. 2008 which sought to adjust historical losses as recorded by the US National Hurricane Center to estimate the damage that each historical storm would have produced had it made landfall in 2005. Pielke et al. 2008 presented two methods for adjusting past losses. The data used in this paper are based on the method first introduced in Pielke and Landsea 1998 and have been updated through the 2008 hurricane season.1 The data used here do not include damage from storms that made landfall at less than hurricane strength though such damage is considered in Pielke et al. 2008 . The data on landfalling hurricanes is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s Hurricane Reanalysis Project.2 Various other data used in the analyses presented below will be cited as they are used. Information on landfalling hurricanes is generally recognized as being more reliable as long as a century ago and earlier because large tropical cyclones would have been .