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assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 9

Tuy nhiên, như thể hiện trong bảng 7.3, phá giá trên thế giới đang phát triển thường xuyên nhất liên quan với suy thoái. Có nhiều giải thích lý thuyết cho việc tìm kiếm này (xem Lizondo và Montiel 1989 cho một cuộc khảo sát của văn học). Hai là quan tâm đặc biệt. | Yet as shown in table 7.3 devaluations in the developing world are most often associated with recessions. There are numerous theoretical explanations for this finding see Lizondo and Montiel 1989 for a survey of the literature . Two are of particular interest. First devaluations that occur in the context of balance of payments crises are associated with losses of confidence and increases in uncertainty that are damaging to economic activity. It is usually the case that credibility problems are more severe for developing countries than for their industrial counterparts. Second while industrial countries do not face a higher debt-servicing costs following devaluation as their debt is predominantly denominated in their own currencies developing-country debt is largely denominated in US dollars or other foreign currencies. Hence a large devaluation will have staggering implications for debt servicing burdens. Furthermore recessions following currency crises appear to be more severe among the high-inflation countries. This may be because inflation itself has adverse effects on growth Fischer 1993 or because high-inflation countries may be especially prone to losing their access to international credit relative to their low-inflation counterparts. The evidence presented in Cantor and Packer 1996a does indeed show that private credit ratings penalize high inflation. In any event most existing studies find devaluation episodes in emerging economies to be contractionary with their negative impact diminishing within two years and table 7.3 supports these findings.2 In this connection Morley 1992 concludes that the reason that earlier studies which are largely focused on devaluations during the 1950s and 1960s find milder recessions and even positive output consequences is that many of those devaluation episodes occurred in the context of trade liberalization and exchange market reform not in the context of balance of payments crises. Table 7.3 shows that inflation picks up .