Tham khảo tài liệu 'trading strategies for the global stock, bond, commodity, and currency markets_3', tài chính - ngân hàng, đầu tư chứng khoán phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | COMMODITY INDEXES FIGURE THE CRB FUTURES PRICE INDEX VERSUS THE CRB ENERGY FUTURES INDEX FROM 1985 TO 1989. THE ENERGY MARKETS ARE ALSO IMPORTANT TO THE CRB INDEX AND SHOULD BE GIVEN SPECIAL ATTENTION. THE 1986 BOTTOM IN THE CRB INDEX WAS CAUSED PRIMARILY BY THE BOTTOM IN OIL PRICES. CRB Futures Price Index 3-27 8-20 1-13 6-9 10-29 3-24 8-14 1-7 5-31 10-20 3-15 8-7 12-27 CRB Energy Futures Index 3-29 8-21 1-14 6-9 10-29 3-24 8-14 1-7 5-31 10-20 3-15 8-7 12-27 12 27 89 ENERGY VERSUS METALS MARKETS 113 FIGURE THE CRB FUTURES PRICE INDEX VERSUS THE CRB PRECIOUS METALS INDEX FROM 1985 TO 1989. THE PRECIOUS METALS GROUP IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO THE OVERALL TREND OF THE CRB INDEX. THE METALS MARKETS USUALLY LEAD THE CRB INDEX. THE LACK OF BULLISH CONFIRMATION BY THE METALS IN 1988 WAS A WARNING OF A PEAK IN THE CRB INDEX. A METALS RALLY IN LATE 1989 ALSO HELPED LAUNCH A CRB INDEX RALLY. CRB Futures Price Index 260 240 220 200 3-27 8-20 1-13 6-9 10-29 3-24 8-14 1-7 5-31 10-20 3-15 8-7 12-27 CRB Precious Metals Index Ill ll_I_I I_I_I_I_L 400 350 300 250 200 3-29 8-21 1-14 6-9 10-29 3-24 8-14 1-7 5-31 10-20 3-15 8-7 12-27 12 27 89 ENERGY VERSUS METALS MARKETS I ve already alluded to the interplay between the oil and precious metals markets. Although the fit between the two is far from perfect it s useful to keep an eye on both. Since both are leading indicators of inflation it stands to reason that major moves in one sector will eventually have an effect on the other. Figure compares the CRB Energy Futures Index to the CRB Precious Metals Futures Index from 1985 through the end of 1989. Although they don t always trend in the same direction they do clearly seem to impact on one another. Although the metals had been trending irregularly higher going into mid-1986 they didn t begin to soar until the summer of that year when the oil price collapse had been reversed to the upside. Both sectors dropped through the second half of 1987 and most of 1988 although the 1987
