(BQ) Part 2 book "Macroeconomics" has contents: Introduction to economic fluctuations; a dynamic model of economic fluctuations; understanding consumer behavior; the theory of investment; alternative perspectives on stabilization policy; government debt and budget deficits; the financial system - opportunities and dangers. | Find more at CHAPTER 10 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations The modern world regards business cycles much as the ancient Egyptians regarded the overflowing of the Nile. The phenomenon recurs at intervals, it is of great importance to everyone, and natural causes of it are not in sight. —John Bates Clark, 1898 E conomic fluctuations present a recurring problem for economists and policymakers. On average, the real GDP of the United States grows about 3 percent per year. But this long-run average hides the fact that the economy’s output of goods and services does not grow smoothly. Growth is higher in some years than in others; sometimes the economy loses ground, and growth turns negative. These fluctuations in the economy’s output are closely associated with fluctuations in employment. When the economy experiences a period of falling output and rising unemployment, the economy is said to be in recession. A recent recession began in late 2007. From the third quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2008, the economy’s production of goods and services was approximately flat, in contrast to its normal growth. Real GDP then plunged sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. The unemployment rate rose from percent in November 2007 to percent in October 2009. The recession officially ended in June 2009 when positive growth resumed, but the recovery was weak, and unemployment remained above percent for the next four years. Not surprisingly, the recession dominated the economic news, and addressing the problem was high on the policy agenda during President Barack Obama’s early years in office. Economists call these short-run fluctuations in output and employment the business cycle. Although this term suggests that economic fluctuations are regular and predictable, they are not. Recessions are actually as irregular as they are common. Sometimes they occur close together, while at other times they are .
