Dự báo khai thác dầu tầng chứa Oligoxen C, mỏ X, bể Cửu Long ứng dụng mô hình tăng trưởng logistic

Bài viết phân tích, đánh giá các thông số của giếng khai thác thu được khi xây dựng mô hình tăng trưởng logistic như: Thời điểm giếng khai thác được một nửa trữ lượng có thể thu hồi cuối cùng, tốc độ suy giảm lưu lượng trong suốt quá trình khai thác, lưu lượng của các giếng khai thác tại thời điểm dự báo. | Journal of Mining and Earth Sciences Vol. 63 Issue 2 2022 71 - 79 71 Forecasting oil production for Oligocene C sequence X field Cuu Long basin using logistic growth model Ngan Thi Bui 1 Anh Ngoc Le 1 Muoi Duy Nguyen 1 Hoa Minh Nguyen 1 Oanh Thi Tran 2 1 Faculty of oil and gas Hanoi University of Mining and Geology Vietnam 2 Faculty of oil and gas PetroVietnam University Vietnam ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Article history Hydrocarbon production forecasting for the field lifetime in the short Received 18th Oct. 2021 and long term is an important phase the accuracy of this process plays Accepted 20th Jan. 2021 a tremendous role in giving the decision of reasonable field Available online 30th Apr. 2022 management and development. In this article the logistic growth Keywords models using the function MATLAB s nlinfit have been built to forecast History matching process oil production yield for the Oligocene C sequence X field Cuu Long basin. Thanks to the combination with the history matching process the Logistic growth model logistic growth model expressed high accuracy the results of the model Production forecasting. are very close to the actual production data with a relative error of 1 85 . The article analyzed and evaluated the production parameters of wells obtained when building logistic growth models such as the time at which half of the carrying capacity has been produced the steepness of the decline of the rate and the production rate of the wells at the forecast time. Without applying any improved oil recovery method the decline of the rate of all wells approaches 100 bbl d before reaching the validity period of the oil and gas contract. This is the basis for operators to establish and improve field development plans. Copyright 2022 Hanoi University of Mining and Geology. All rights reserved. _ Corresponding author E - mail buithingan@ DOI 2 .07 72 Tạp chí Khoa học Kỹ thuật Mỏ - Địa chất Tập 63 Kỳ 2 2022 71 - 79 Dự báo khai thác .