Part 2 book "Epidemic logistics modeling - A new perspective on operations research" includes content: A novel FPEA model for medical resources allocation in an epidemic control; integrated planning for public health emergencies - A modified model for controlling H1N1 pandemic; logistics planning for hospital pharmacy trusteeship under a hybrid of uncertainties and other contents. | Chapter 8 A Novel FPEA Model for Medical Resources Allocation in an Epidemic Control This chapter presents a dynamic logistics model for medical resources allocation that can be used to control an epidemic diffusion. It couples a forecasting mechanism constructed for the demand of a medicine in the course of such epidemic diffusion and a logistics planning system to satisfy the forecasted demand and minimize the total cost. The forecasting mechanism is a time discretized version of the SEIR model that is widely employed in predicting the trajectory of an epidemic diffusion. The logistics planning system is formulated as a mixed 0 1 integer programming problem characterizing the decision-making at various levels of hospitals distribution centers pharmaceutical plants and the transportation in between them. The model is built as a closed-loop cycle comprising forecast phase planning phase execution phase and adjustment phase. The parameters of the forecasting mechanism are adjusted in reflection of the real data collected in the execution phase by solving a quadratic programming problem. A numerical example is presented to verify efficiency of the model. Introduction In the past two decades the world has been aware of the threat of various epidemics. According to WHO s annual report in 2002 the world was confronted with an infec- tious disease crisis of global proportions. A fact was that more than 4 million people worldwide were infected with HIV in 2002 1 . This number became million at the end of 2014. In that year 2 million people became newly infected and million died of AIDS-related causes 2 . There are two separate streams of modeling work in the operations research and management science discipline on the topic of epidemic spread and control that will be briefly overviewed below. One of the compartmental models studies on the diffusion dynamics and the other studies on medical resources allocation problems. The intended contribution of this study .
