Trong thời đại ngày nay có nhiều xu thế xuất hiện trên thế giới trong đó có xu thế hội nhập có ảnh hưởng mạnh mẽ nhất đến các doanh nghiệp đặc biệt trong điều kiện nước ta mới mở cửa. | FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA How Do Changes in Market Interest Rates Affect Bank Profits In the past year interest rates in the United States have been both unusually high and unusually variable. The prime loan rate for example stood at 15 percent in early 1980 increased to a peak 01 20 percent in April then plummeted to 11 percent by August. Other short-term rates exhibited a similar pattern. As is often the case however bank loan rates have received more popular attention than other rates and many people believe that the banking sector was making unreasonably high profits from these higher loan rates. For many bankers and bank regulators though high and rising market rates do not necessarily imply record profits. These observers recognize that greater bank interest The author a Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is on leave from the Finance Department of the University of Pennsylvania. Carole Moeller provided research assistance throughout this study. By Mark J. Flannery revenues are at least partly offset by the higher interest costs banks must pay for their deposits and other liabilities. If market rates drive up bank costs more rapidly than loan revenues bank profits will fall. In the extreme widespread bank losses could destabilize the financial sector or so the story goes. With bank costs and revenues both responding to increases in market rates the net effect on bank profits is hard to predict. A recent Philadelphia Fed study concludes however that most banks employ portfolio management techniques that insulate their earnings from the effects of high and volatile market rates. Banks do not reap windfalls nor are they in danger of failing when market rates change. INTEREST RATES AND PROFITS A DUAL IMPACT When interest rates rise because of Fed policy actions or other forces bank portfolio 13 BUSINESS REVIEW SEPTEMBER OCTOBER 1980 managers can expect changes on both the asset and liability sides of their balance Bank
