This study will initially evaluate the skill of the IFS model for temperature forecasting in short term at all regions in Viet Nam. In addition, to determine whether the model can be applied in operational forecasting, the study will also evaluate the correct of the model following the legal documents. | JOURNAL OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGY Research Article Evaluate the correct and the skill of the IFS model for minimum temperature average temperature maximum temperature forecasting in short term 24 hours at 09 regions in Vietnam Le Thi Thu Ha1 Nguyen Thu Hang2 Tran Thi Thanh Hai1 Nguyen Thi Tuyet3 1 Meteorological and Hydrological Forecasting Management Department leha246@ haitran84@ 2 National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting nthang0676@ 3 Ho Chi Minh University of Natural Resource and Environment nttuyet@ Corresponding author leha246@ Tel. 84 904290269 Received 12 February 2024 Accepted 18 March 2024 Published 25 March 2024 Abstract Conceptually forecast verification is simple you just need to compare the forecast factors and observed factors. The accuracy of a forecast is a measure of how close to the actual weather the forecast was. The reliability of a forecast is the average agreement between the forecast values and the observed values. The skill of a forecast is performed based on some benchmark forecast usually by comparing the accuracy of the forecast with the accuracy of the benchmark. The benchmark forecast can be a climatic value. Meanwhile the correct forecast is bias between the forecast value and the observed value within the allowable range. This study evaluates the correct and forecasting skill of the IFS model by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for minimum temperature Tm average temperature Tave maximum temperature Tx forecasting in 24 hours at 09 regions in Viet Nam. The results show that within 24 hours the IFS model predicts a high bias for the Tm from to and a low bias for the Tave from to and Tx from to - . The correct in the southern region is higher than in the northern region average about 10 to 15 . The skill of IFS model is higher than the benchmark skill for the Tm has exceeded the Benchmark value by to skill for the Tave .
